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一名中国前高级法官公开致世界AI领军人物信之一：马斯克——人类是否忽视而遗漏了支撑文明的底层规律？

One of a Series of Open Letters from a Former Senior Chinese Judge to the World’s AI Leaders: Elon Musk — Has Humanity Overlooked a Foundational Principle That Sustains Civilization?

（Special Note:

The phrase “former Senior Judge” appears in the title only to give this letter a slightly better chance of being noticed. It is not intended to make readers focus on who I am, nor on the particular way in which I express what I wish to say.

I am simply a very ordinary old man. What I truly wish to discuss is also a principle that appears extraordinarily ordinary — so ordinary that no one can do anything without relying on it. Precisely for that reason, it is like air: because human beings are so familiar with it, it has long been overlooked.

What I truly hope all humanity will examine together is this:

Does such an “ordinary” foundational principle in fact determine the success or failure of human behavior, social cooperation, and even the rise and decline of civilizations? Could it be a basic sustaining principle of civilization that humanity has never fully recognized?

Therefore, who is saying it is not important. Whether what is being said is true is what deserves everyone’s attention.

Since 2014, I have continuously written to governments, contacted the media, social organizations, scholars, and people from many different fields, and gradually published the series Letters to Everyone in the World together with related articles. Today, in deciding to make public some of my letters to leading figures in global AI, I still have only one purpose:

to place this question before all humanity for collective examination.

I believe that when a question may concern the direction of human civilization as a whole, governments and international organizations have a responsibility to study it, the media have an obligation to help the public understand it, and every person has the right to participate in judging it.

What humanity faces today is no longer merely a “crossroads” in the conventional historical sense. If the underlying way in which civilization itself operates contains a fundamental problem, then moving forward, backward, left, or right may all amount only to repeating the old pattern — and this time, the repetition may bring humanity closer than ever before to an accelerating path toward its own destruction.

What truly needs to change is an upward transformation. Perhaps the first thing that must be elevated is the human mode of thinking through which we observe the world and judge value.

The core proposition I put forward is:

Procedures form relationships; relationships form structures; structures generate dynamic balance through feedback; and this ultimately appears as the properties and outcomes of a system.

From this, I summarize the most basic practical standard for civilization as:

grasp the procedure, build the pattern, seek the balance.

I believe the greatest difference between this and many grand theories of civilization in the past is that it does not first require people to accept a particular religion, ideology, or concrete value objective. Instead, it attempts to provide a common practical principle that everyone can understand, that can be applied to real action, and that can be tested against reality.

If this direction is wrong, I hope humanity will help prove it wrong.

If it truly touches upon some foundational principle, then humanity may be able to use it to rebuild and strengthen the underlying foundations of social cooperation, allowing civilization gradually to move away from its long-repeated cycles of mutual struggle, mutual harm, and war, and toward stable, harmonious, and sustainable cooperation.

That is the only reason I am making these letters public.

I do not hope the world will focus on the person who wrote these letters. I hope the world will seriously examine the questions these letters are actually asking.

Finally, a note: some websites impose word-count or character limits, so certain versions of these letters found online may be incomplete. If a text appears incomplete, you may search for the full version using the Chinese or English title of the letter, or contact the publicly listed email addresses of AI companies associated with the person to whom the letter is addressed and ask for assistance in locating or forwarding the complete version.

——特别题注：

标题中写入“前高级法官”，只是为了让这封信多获得一点被看见的机会，并不是希望读者关注我是谁，以及在用什么方式表述所说之事。

我只是一个极其普通的老人。我真正想讲的，也是一条看起来极其普通的规律——普通到任何人做任何事都离不开它，也因此这规律就像空气一样，因为人过于熟悉而长期被忽略。

我真正希望全人类共同鉴别的是：

这样一个“普通”的底层规律，是否事实上决定着人的行为、社会合作乃至文明兴衰的成败？它是否正是人类长期没有真正认清的文明底层支撑规律？

所以，谁在说并不重要，说的事情是否真实，才值得所有人关注。

自2014年以来，我持续向政府写信，也不断联系媒体、社会组织、学者和各领域人士，并陆续发表《致全球每一个人的信》及相关文章。今天决定公开部分致世界AI领军人物的信，仍然只有一个目的：

把这个问题交给全人类共同甄别。

因为我认为，对这样一个可能关系整个人类文明方向的问题，政府和国际组织有责任研究，媒体有义务帮助公众了解，每一个人也都有参与判断的权利。

今天人类面对的，已经不仅是通常历史意义上的“十字路口选择”。如果原有文明运行方式本身存在底层问题，那么前后左右可能都只是旧模式的重复，且这次可能是最接近不断加速毁灭全人类的一次。

真正需要改变的是向上抬升，也许首先是人类观察世界和判断价值的思维模式。

我提出的核心判断是：

程序形成关系，关系形成结构，结构通过反馈形成动态平衡，并最终表现为系统的性质与结果。

由此，我把文明最基本的做事标准概括为：

抓程序、做模式、求平衡。

我认为，这与过去许多宏大文明理论最大的区别在于：它并不首先要求人们接受某一种宗教、主义或具体价值目标，而试图提供一个人人都能够理解、能够用于具体做事、也能够接受事实检验的共同抓手。

如果这个方向是错的，希望全人类帮助证明它错。

如果它确实触及了某种底层规律，那么人类也许可以由此重新夯实社会合作结构的基础，使文明从长期反复的互斗、互害和战争循环中，逐步走向稳定、和谐、可持续的合作。

这也是我公开这些信件的唯一原因。

不是希望全世界关注写信的人，而是希望全世界认真看看这些信究竟提出了什么问题。

最后说明：部分网站存在字数或字符限制，因此网上看到的某些信件可能不是全文。如内容不完整，可以按照信件的中文或英文标题搜索全文，也可以通过与致信对象相关AI企业公开邮箱的联系方式，请其协助查找或转交完整版本。）

A Renewed Request Concerning Human Cooperation, Civilization, and the Risks of AGI

Dear Mr. Musk and Members of His Team,

First, I respectfully ask whoever receives this email to forward this letter and its attachments to Mr. Musk if you consider it appropriate. I would be deeply grateful.

My pen name is Jin Guyu. I am an elderly Chinese citizen and formerly served as a Senior Judge in a local court in China.

Because of my long experience in law and judicial work, I have spent many years observing and thinking about the contradictions within Chinese society, institutional operation, and the difficulties of social cooperation.

Over time, these reflections led me to a more fundamental question:

What is the underlying nature of human civilization, and are there foundational laws governing the way civilization develops?

From the perspective of natural philosophy, I have developed a hypothesis that I provisionally call the Law of Procedural Determination.

I want to emphasize that I am not asking anyone to accept this hypothesis now.

On the contrary, I urgently hope to place it before humanity so that it can be examined, criticized, tested, and, if necessary, disproved.

Based on this hypothesis, I have gradually reached a strong conviction:

If humanity can update some of its most fundamental patterns of thought, and redesign human behaviour and social cooperation so that they better accord with the underlying nature and developmental logic of civilization, then human cooperation may no longer have to remain as unstable, conflict-ridden, and repeatedly destructive as it has throughout history. It may instead become more stable, harmonious, and sustainable.

This is why I have written to Mr. Musk repeatedly.

I hope that, if Mr. Musk gains even a preliminary understanding of this question and believes it deserves discussion, he might use his influence on X to help bring it to the attention of a wider public.

The question is:

Does humanity need to reconsider the basic mechanisms that support civilization and human cooperation?

Recently, I wrote two articles:

“An Open Global Challenge to Bill Gates”

and

“A Request for Humanity to Jointly Study and Experiment with Strategic Directions for Upgrading Civilization: Who Can Guarantee That No One Will One Day Use AGI to Launch a ‘9/11’ Against All Humanity?”

I have posted both articles on X and on some Chinese-language websites.

I sincerely hope Mr. Musk will read them.

If he believes the questions they raise deserve discussion, I especially hope he might introduce or recommend them on X so that scientists, entrepreneurs, governments, universities, research institutions, and members of the public can examine and debate them.

The reason I continue to write to Mr. Musk and make this request is that I have long regarded him not only as an entrepreneur advancing technology, but also as someone deeply concerned about the long-term future of humanity and civilization.

In my view, the persistent disorder of human social cooperation has now created three potentially fatal obstacles to the healthy development of technological progress.

First, technological achievements are repeatedly used for competition, conflict, control, and mutual harm.

Whenever humanity gains a new form of power, that power is used not only for creation, but also very quickly for warfare, domination, competition, and destruction.

Therefore, if human cooperative structures do not improve at the same time, then the greater our technological power becomes, the greater its potential capacity to undermine the sustainability of civilization.

Second, conflict and mutual obstruction within human society severely prevent technological achievements from being used effectively.

I believe Mr. Musk, through building companies and participating in public-sector reform and political affairs in the United States, has experienced directly how institutional resistance, conflicts of interest, organizational friction, and social division can consume enormous amounts of energy that might otherwise be used for innovation.

What I am trying to explore, therefore, is also intended to help answer this question:

Can humanity improve the foundational mechanisms of social cooperation so that people who are genuinely trying to advance technology and civilization do not have to spend such enormous energy dealing with conflicts created by humanity itself, but can instead devote more of their efforts to work that genuinely advances civilization?

Third, and most urgently, AGI is entering a human civilization that still operates strongly according to a “jungle-style” logic of competition.

In my view, if the existing structure of human cooperation does not undergo fundamental improvement, the arrival of AGI will not automatically raise the level of civilization.

On the contrary, it may first amplify humanity’s existing capacities for competition, control, deception, warfare, and mutual harm by a hundredfold, a thousandfold, or even more.

This could create a systemic and potentially irreversible danger unlike anything produced by earlier technologies.

That is why, when Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei issued public warnings and proposals concerning frontier AI risks on September 12, 2026, Mr. Musk responded publicly on X:

“Dario is right.”

This made me believe even more strongly that Mr. Musk may understand why I think:

AI safety cannot be studied only by examining AI itself. We must also ask whether the human society using AI already possesses a sufficiently stable, rational, and sustainable structure of cooperation.

For this reason, I very much hope that Mr. Musk might take the time to understand my analysis of why the social-cooperation structures supporting human civilization remain so persistently unstable, and the direction I am proposing for exploration — a direction that, in my view, may help civilization move away from existential danger.

If Mr. Musk believes this direction deserves serious examination, I hope he might not only recommend the question on X, but also consider encouraging an open international discussion, or even helping to promote an international conference around the following research question:

Does the stability of human social-cooperation structures constitute an important precondition for the safe governance of advanced artificial intelligence?

And, beyond that:

Why are the structures of social cooperation created by humanity so persistently difficult to make genuinely stable and sustainable?

To help Mr. Musk better understand why I have continued writing these letters, and to explain my present circumstances, I have attached.......

These documents may help explain:

why I feel such urgency about placing this question before humanity;

why I am trying to find an environment in which I can speak freely and accept open criticism;

and why I believe there is no longer much time to wait.

The two articles mentioned earlier in this email can also be found on X by searching their English titles.

If Mr. Musk wishes to understand my background or ideas in greater detail, I am willing to provide additional materials truthfully by email and to accept any questions, criticism, or rebuttal.

Mr. Musk has had extensive experience dealing with China and has his own observations of Chinese society. He has also previously commented on the importance of personal relationships and relationship-based social structures in China.

For that reason, I believe he may understand my concern......

That is why, while I still have the opportunity, I continue trying again and again to send these ideas outward.

I am not asking Mr. Musk to believe my theory.

I ask only this:

If the question deserves investigation, please help more capable people see it, criticize it, and test it.

If it is wrong, let evidence and research demonstrate that it is wrong.

If it does contain a direction worth exploring, then I hope humanity will not miss the opportunity to examine it seriously simply because the person raising the question is an ordinary elderly Chinese man without institutional backing.

May humanity have less misunderstanding, fear, and mutual harm — and more forms of cooperation that can genuinely endure.

Respectfully,

pen name: Jin Guyu

Former Senior Judge of a Local Court in China

Author of the Letters to Everyone in the World series

Email: ——

Attachments

（This is followed by the original Chinese text of the letter.）

关于人类文明合作机制与AGI风险的再次请求——敬请马斯克先生关注并推动公开讨论

尊敬的马斯克先生及团队：

首先，谨请阅读本邮件的工作人员，在您认为合适的情况下，将本信及附件转交给马斯克先生。对此，我深表感谢。

我笔名金谷雨，是一名来自中国的老人。我曾任中国地方法院高级法官。由于长期从事法律和司法工作，我对中国社会长期存在的各种矛盾、制度运行和社会合作问题有较多直接观察和思考。由此，我逐渐把自己的探索推进到一个更加基础的问题：

人类文明的本质究竟是什么？人类文明的演绎是否存在可以共同把握的基础规律？

在长期思考中，我从自然哲学角度提出了一个假说，我暂时称之为**“程序定质规律”**。

我希望强调：我并不是要求任何人现在接受这个假说。相反，我急切希望把它交给全人类共同甄别、批评和检验。

依据这一假说，我形成了一个越来越坚定的判断：

如果人类能够对自身的基础思维模式进行更新，使人类行为机制和社会合作方式更加符合文明本质及其演绎规律，那么，人类社会合作就有可能不再像有史以来那样反复动荡、失序和崩溃，而逐步走向稳定、和谐和可持续。

这也是我为什么反复给马斯克先生写信。

我希望，如果马斯克先生在初步了解以后认为这个问题哪怕有一点值得讨论，能够利用您在X上的影响力，帮助把这个问题推荐给更多人，让全世界不同领域的人共同关注和检验：

人类是否需要重新研究支撑文明运行的基础合作机制？

最近，我又写了两篇文章：

《An Open Global Challenge to Bill Gates》

（《向比尔·盖茨发出的全球公开挑战》）

以及：

《A Request for Humanity to Jointly Study and Experiment with Strategic Directions for Upgrading Civilization: Who Can Guarantee That No One Will One Day Use AGI to Launch a “9/11” Against All Humanity?》

（《请求人类共同研究和实验文明升级的战略方向：谁敢保证，未来不会有人利用AGI发动一次针对全人类的“9·11”？》）

我已经把这两篇文章发布在X及部分中文网站上。

我真诚希望马斯克先生能够阅读。如果您认为其中提出的问题确实值得讨论，我尤其希望您能够在X上予以介绍或推荐，让更多科学家、企业家、政府、大学、研究机构和普通公众参与甄别和讨论。

我之所以总是想到给马斯克先生写信，并提出这样的请求，是因为我一直认为，您不仅是一位推动科技进步的企业家，也是一位长期关注人类未来和文明长期风险的人。

而在人类社会合作长期混乱的现实中，科技进步现在正面对三个我认为已经十分危险的“致命梗阻”。